张尧浠：地缘局势风险难稳、金价震荡调整仍待走强

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risks continue to create volatility in gold prices, with expectations for a potential upward trend despite recent fluctuations [1][5]. Price Movement - On February 19, gold opened at $4977.09 per ounce, reached a low of $4959.36, and peaked at $5022.08 before closing at $4996.35, marking a daily increase of $19.26 or 0.39% [3]. - The price is expected to remain volatile, influenced by the strengthening U.S. dollar and technical resistance levels, while also supported by geopolitical factors [3][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming key economic data includes the U.S. December core PCE price index year-on-year, Q4 GDP annualized rate, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for February, which could impact gold prices depending on whether they lean positive or negative [5]. - Recent U.S. economic data has not significantly altered interest rate cut expectations, with the potential for a low-rate environment under the Trump administration [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices are maintaining a bullish outlook, having rebounded from a previous downward trend and remaining above the 5-month moving average [8]. - Daily charts show ongoing adjustments with resistance at the mid-line and support from the 30-day moving average, suggesting a bullish trend in the longer term despite short-term fluctuations [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4950 and $4900, while resistance levels are at $5020 and $5070 [11].