美联储年内降息空间被高估？资管巨头逆势做空美债

Core Viewpoint - Invesco Ltd. and Carmignac's portfolio managers are shorting U.S. Treasuries, arguing that the market's expectation of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year contradicts the resilience of the U.S. economy [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - January employment growth exceeded expectations, and companies are investing heavily in artificial intelligence, indicating a strong economy [1] - The overall CPI year-on-year for January was 2.4%, showing a cooling of inflation, but service prices are accelerating [3] - Recent economic data, including weekly jobless claims, further demonstrate the resilience of the economy, with Citigroup's index showing U.S. data consistently exceeding analyst expectations [4] Group 2: Interest Rate Predictions and Market Sentiment - Market traders are betting on at least two rate cuts this year, with the probability of a third cut reduced from about 50% to approximately 25% after recent data and Fed meeting minutes [7] - BNP Paribas and JPMorgan Chase predict that there will be no rate cuts this year, citing the potential for productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence to raise the neutral interest rate [7] - Some investors are focusing on the leadership of the Federal Reserve, with hedge fund manager David Einhorn betting on a more aggressive easing policy under a new chair [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Bond Market Dynamics - Carmignac's Guillaume Rigeade expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rise from approximately 4.07% to 4.5%, the highest level since mid-2025 [2] - Schroders' James Ringer emphasizes the importance of selecting the right segment of the yield curve, suggesting that while the overall economy is healthy, certain sectors' weakness may justify short-term easing [8] - MFS International UK Ltd. warns that if rate cuts do not materialize as expected, U.S. Treasuries could face significant declines, with long-term yields potentially rising by up to 70 basis points [7]