Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "outperforming the industry" rating for IFBH (06603), with a target price adjustment of 11.36% to HKD 19.5, indicating a potential upside of 31.05% based on 2026/27 P/E valuations [1] Group 1: Profit Forecasts - The company forecasts a year-on-year net profit decline of 27% to 32% for 2025, estimating a net profit range of USD 2,265 million to USD 2,432 million, with adjusted net profit (excluding listing expenses) expected to decline by 25% to 20%, slightly below the bank's expectations [1][2] Group 2: Revenue and Brand Performance - The IF brand is expected to grow healthily, with projected revenue growth of 15% to 20% year-on-year, while Innococo is anticipated to experience a high double-digit revenue decline in the second half of 2025 due to short-term channel adjustments, putting overall revenue under pressure [2] - The coconut water industry is expected to continue double-digit growth in 2026, benefiting from health beverage consumption trends, with IF poised to enjoy industry benefits [2] Group 3: Profitability Challenges - For the second half of 2025, the company anticipates a year-on-year net profit decline of 41% to 51%, with net profit expected to be between USD 768 million and USD 934 million, and a decrease in net profit margin by 9.3 to 11.3 percentage points [3] - The appreciation of the Thai Baht against the US Dollar is expected to negatively impact the company's gross margin, which is likely to continue its downward trend from the first half of 2025 [3] - Increased sales and distribution expense ratios are anticipated due to foreign exchange fluctuations, alongside rising marketing expense ratios driven by promotional activities despite declining Innococo revenues [3]
中金：维持IFBH(06603)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价降至19.5港元