2026空调市场开局调整 元春排产逆势增长显信心

Group 1 - The air conditioning market is expected to enter a new development phase in 2026 after experiencing a "price drop and volume increase" adjustment in 2025, with retail volume growing by 4.7% year-on-year, while retail value slightly decreased by 0.4% [1] - In early 2026, the market faces new challenges due to the implementation of a new national subsidy policy and the timing of the Spring Festival, leading to a double-digit decline in production plans for February, with domestic production down by 13.8% to 6.03 million units and export production down by 12.7% to 7.51 million units [4] - Despite the challenges, air conditioning companies show a positive outlook, with domestic production in January-February increasing by 8.6% year-on-year, reflecting optimism about the domestic market [4] Group 2 - The new national subsidy policy is expected to stimulate consumer demand that was suppressed in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a focus on high-efficiency and high-technology products, as the subsidy amount is reduced from three units to one, but the subsidy rate is set at 15% [4] - The offline market is showing signs of stabilization, with the sales decline narrowing to -2.3% due to the continued benefits of the national subsidy policy [4] - The air conditioning market in 2026 will still face overall pressure from rising raw material prices and shrinking consumer demand, pushing companies to shift from scale expansion to value competition [5]