大涨150%后又大跌35%，白银的过山车，开年还能捡漏上车吗？

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced extreme volatility in 2025 and early 2026, driven by liquidity influx, strong industrial demand, and self-reinforcing market sentiment, leading to a dramatic price surge followed by a sharp decline [1][3][5][8]. Group 1: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - In 2025, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts led to a surge in liquidity, attracting significant capital into the silver market, which has a total market value only one-tenth that of gold [3]. - The influx of retail and speculative investors, drawn by low prices, resulted in unprecedented premiums for silver funds and record-high open interest in COMEX silver futures [3]. - The market's structure became increasingly crowded with long positions, setting the stage for a sharp correction when prices began to fall [9]. Group 2: Industrial Demand - Silver transitioned from being a mere precious metal to a critical industrial component, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which consumed about one-sixth of the global silver production in 2025 [4]. - The demand for silver surged due to advancements in high-efficiency battery technologies and the expansion of data centers and electric vehicles, while supply remained rigid due to the nature of silver extraction [4]. - The London Bullion Market Association reported that deliverable silver stocks fell to levels sufficient for only 1.2 months of global consumption, indicating a precarious supply situation [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Fluctuations - By the end of 2025, social media buzz around silver investments created a speculative bubble, with prices soaring over 140% throughout the year [5]. - On January 29, 2026, silver prices peaked at $121.65 per ounce before a sudden collapse triggered by the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair, which reversed market expectations for further rate cuts [8]. - The market's fragile structure led to a cascade of forced liquidations, resulting in a record single-day price drop of over 35%, with prices plummeting to near $74 [9]. Group 4: Long-term Supply and Demand Outlook - Despite the short-term volatility, the World Silver Survey projected a supply deficit of 67 million ounces in 2026, indicating persistent structural demand from industries like photovoltaics and AI [11]. - The rising silver prices have pressured manufacturers, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, to innovate and reduce silver usage, potentially impacting long-term demand growth [15]. - Silver's dual role as both an industrial metal and a financial asset creates a complex market dynamic, with its price sensitivity to monetary policy and industrial demand [12][15].