12月核心PCE同比涨3%超预期 美联储大概率维持利率暂不降息

Group 1 - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for December shows a year-on-year increase of 3%, surpassing November's 2.8% and exceeding economists' expectations by 0.2 percentage points, indicating persistent price stickiness [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously predicted that the core PCE would reach 3%, aligning with the expectations of several Fed officials [1] - Fed Governor Michael Barr emphasized that policy rates need to remain stable until inflation is clearly seen to return to the 2% target, citing tariffs as a factor keeping inflation elevated at 3% [1] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that inflation is still far from the 2% target, and strong economic performance may push inflation higher, necessitating sufficiently high interest rates to suppress inflation [2] - The minutes from the January monetary policy meeting indicate that most officials warned that the process of returning inflation to the 2% target may be slower and more uneven than expected, with risks of sustained inflation above target [2] - Fed official Stephen Milan adjusted his rate cut expectations, raising the target for the end of 2026 from below 2.25% to below 2.75%, indicating a more cautious stance [2]