持有美债超1万亿美元占比12.4% 日本债券市场隐形稳定器消退 美债风险凸显

Core Insights - Japan's role as a "hidden stabilizer" in the global bond market is shifting, with U.S. Treasury bonds likely to be the most affected asset class [1] - As of the end of 2024, Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, holding over $1 trillion, which accounts for 12.4% of foreign-held federal debt [1] - The appeal of overseas assets for Japanese investors is diminishing due to rising domestic bond yields following tax cuts and spending plans initiated by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida [1] Group 1 - Japanese investors may repatriate significant funds to benefit from rising domestic bond yields, potentially leading to a decrease in global bond market stability [1] - The yield spread between Japanese 10-year bonds and U.S. 10-year bonds has narrowed by approximately 115 basis points over the past year, indicating reduced attractiveness of overseas investments [1] - DeVere Group anticipates that this shift will lead to increased long-term bond risk premiums and a steeper yield curve in major markets, tightening the global financial environment [1] Group 2 - Derek Halpern, research head at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, believes that it is reasonable for Japanese investors to consider keeping more funds in the domestic bond market, although this process will be gradual [2] - The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) currently allocates 50% of its assets to the bond market, with nearly half of that in overseas bonds, amounting to 72.8 trillion yen [2] - James Lingard, a fund manager at Schroders, notes that while the return of Japanese funds is a risk to monitor, improvements in volatility and liquidity of Japanese bonds are necessary before large-scale repatriation occurs [2]