在短期波动中把握被“错杀”品种的布局机会

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market in 2025 exhibited a clear structural differentiation, with precious metals leading the market, while non-ferrous and new energy metals also performed well. The year 2026 is expected to see a moderate economic recovery and a more accommodative liquidity environment, with investment strategies focusing on selecting sectors and controlling pace as key to success [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy is projected to recover moderately in 2026, with an upward trend in the global manufacturing cycle and a stable domestic economy despite differentiation. Inflation and corporate profits are likely to rise moderately [3]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to lower global short-term rates, further enhancing the upward potential of the global manufacturing cycle [3]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The core feature of the capital market in 2026 will be a multi-dimensional "K" type differentiation, characterized by strong external factors versus weak internal factors, old versus new economy, AI versus non-AI, and supply bottlenecks versus supply elasticity [3][4]. - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are anticipated to be the main asset allocation varieties in 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The allocation value of precious metals continues to rise, making them one of the main varieties for 2026. The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the U.S. strategic shift towards Europe and South America are expected to enhance gold's safe-haven and allocation value [4]. - The growth in gold ETFs, particularly in European countries, reflects the increasing allocation value of gold [4]. Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals - The pricing logic of non-ferrous metals is undergoing reconstruction, with a likely upward trend in price centers in 2026. Demand from sectors such as new energy, data centers, and infrastructure investment is driving this change, while traditional real estate demand is declining [4]. - Major countries, led by the U.S. and China, are focusing on resource and key mineral reserves, which will significantly alter short-term supply-demand balance and drive non-ferrous metal prices higher [4]. Group 5: Black and Energy Chemical Sectors - The black metal sector is expected to present limited investment opportunities in 2026, with a tendency towards oscillation due to significant supply elasticity in the industrial chain [5]. - The energy chemical sector offers opportunities primarily in the stock market, with a focus on left-side interventions as capacity cycles peak. The polyester industry is noted for its relatively better fundamentals [5]. Group 6: Geopolitical Factors - Despite an overall optimistic outlook for the commodity market in 2026, a single upward trend is unlikely. Geopolitical disturbances are identified as a key factor influencing market rhythm, with a pattern of "seasonal price increases and actual declines" expected to continue [6][7]. - Geopolitical conflicts may create short-term panic, leading to indiscriminate declines in asset valuations, but these are not expected to evolve into systemic risks. Investors are encouraged to seek out undervalued assets during these periods [7].