深夜突发，三大指数盘中直线拉升！美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违法，美国或需退还1750亿美元！特朗普：判决可耻

Group 1 - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Google rising by 3.5% following the release of its latest foundational model, Gemini 3.1 Pro, which has doubled its inference performance compared to the previous version released in November [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index opened lower but turned positive, currently up by 0.06% [2] - Significant fluctuations were observed in gold and silver prices [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the large-scale tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act lacked clear legal authorization, with a 6-3 vote [4] - The court's decision indicates that Trump's global tariff policies, including "reciprocal" tariffs and targeted import taxes aimed at combating fentanyl smuggling, exceeded his authority [4] - The Supreme Court did not address the issue of tariff refund eligibility, leaving this complex legal matter to lower courts [4] Group 3 - Market predictions indicate a 66% probability that the court will order Trump to refund tariffs by July 2026, a significant increase from the previous estimate of around 30% [5] - Trump criticized the ruling as "shameful" and mentioned he is considering alternative options to address the implications of the Supreme Court's decision [5] - The U.S. government may explore other trade laws to reinstate related tariffs if those under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are deemed illegal [5] Group 4 - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis [5] - The overall price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2025, consistent with 2024, while the core PCE index is projected to increase by 2.8%, slightly lower than the 2.9% in 2024 [5] - Preliminary estimates show that the U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to be 1.4%, significantly below market expectations and down from 4.4% in Q3 [6] - The growth in Q4 GDP is primarily driven by increased consumer spending and investment, although declines in government spending and exports partially offset this growth [6]