Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2026-02-21 09:23Core Viewpoint - The dominant variable in the gold market is shifting from "buy or not" to "how much volatility" as Goldman Sachs indicates that increased demand for gold call options is driving price volatility, temporarily suppressing central bank gold purchases, which is expected to be a short-term phenomenon [1][4]. Group 1: Volatility and Options Demand - Goldman Sachs links the recent increase in gold price volatility to diversified demand from the private sector, particularly through gold call options [2]. - The report highlights that the open interest in call options for the largest gold ETF, GLD, is at record levels, serving as a key indicator for rising volatility [2]. - As gold prices rise, sellers of call options are forced to buy gold to hedge, amplifying price increases; however, even minor pullbacks can lead to a shift in trading behavior, potentially triggering stop-loss orders and further losses [2][8]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Central bank gold purchasing has shown a temporary slowdown, with a forecast of 22 tons for December 2025, significantly below the 12-month average of 52 tons [4]. - Goldman Sachs views this slowdown as a temporary pause rather than a trend reversal, supported by communication with central banks and a structural change in risk perception following the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 [4][5]. Group 3: Scenarios for Gold Prices - Goldman Sachs outlines two scenarios regarding the interplay of volatility, central bank demand, and gold prices: - The baseline scenario anticipates a return to accelerated central bank purchases as volatility decreases, leading to a gradual price increase to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026 [6]. - The bullish scenario suggests that enhanced diversification demand from private sectors could lead to sustained high volatility and significant upward price risks, while potentially suppressing emerging market central bank demand in the short term [7]. Group 4: Tactical Insights - On a tactical level, Goldman Sachs warns that even mild catalysts could trigger significant price pullbacks, estimating a downside boundary around $4,700 per ounce [8]. - The demand for GLD call options has been rebuilt to record levels after a "washout" in late January, indicating that typical factors causing limited pullbacks could lead to extraordinary declines in gold prices [8][9].