One Analyst Thinks Tesla's Robotaxi Revenue Could Soar to $250 Billion by 2035. But Here Are 3 Things Investors Need to Know.

Core Insights - Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner forecasts that Tesla's Robotaxi operation could generate $250 billion in revenue by the middle of the next decade [2] Group 1: Revenue Potential - Rosner's analysis suggests that Tesla could be on the verge of generating hundreds of billions of dollars in new revenue from Robotaxi over the next decade [2] - By 2035, the ride-hailing market is expected to be divided with 30% from autonomous vehicles and 70% from human drivers, with Tesla projected to capture 50% of the robotaxi market [8] - Assuming a price of $1 per mile, the total robotaxi opportunity for Tesla carries an equity value estimated at $2.75 trillion [8] Group 2: Risks and Challenges - Financial models for Robotaxi are highly sensitive and primarily driven by assumptions, with the current market largely consisting of combustion engine vehicles [5] - The development of Robotaxi requires significant capital investment, which may pressure Tesla's gross margins and free cash flow until the operation scales [7] - The market size for autonomous vehicles remains uncertain, and if it turns out to be smaller than Rosner's model suggests, Tesla's opportunity could diminish considerably [6]