Where Will Microsoft Be in 1 Year?

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is experiencing a significant stock decline, with shares dropping over 25% from their peak, marking the second-worst drawdown in the last decade [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Decline - Microsoft is facing challenges due to its heavy reliance on OpenAI, which contributes $281 billion to Azure's $625 billion cloud computing backlog [4]. - OpenAI is under pressure from competition and financial scrutiny, needing to raise $100 billion to stabilize its operations while Microsoft plans to invest $120 billion in AI infrastructure this year [5]. - The software industry, particularly legacy products like Windows, is experiencing a sell-off, adding to the pressure on Microsoft [6]. Group 2: Investor Concerns - The uncertainty surrounding Microsoft's stock price makes it difficult to predict how low it may fall, prompting investors to assess the likelihood of worst-case scenarios [7]. - Microsoft is developing its own AI models to reduce dependence on OpenAI, which is also taking steps to counter competition by launching new AI products and acquiring relevant technologies [8]. - The stickiness of Microsoft's software is highlighted by a significant global outage caused by a cybersecurity issue, indicating that companies are unlikely to replace essential software with unproven AI solutions [9][10]. Group 3: Market Outlook - As Microsoft's valuation decreases, the associated risks diminish, potentially increasing upside for investors; the stock is currently trading at less than 25 times earnings, close to its lowest P/E ratio in a decade [11]. - There is a belief that Microsoft stock could trade higher in a year if the company's fundamentals remain strong [11].