Down 25%, Should You Buy the Dip on Bristol Myers Squibb?

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical industry is facing significant challenges due to patent expirations, particularly impacting Bristol Myers Squibb, which is experiencing a steep patent cliff that is affecting its stock performance [1][2][4]. Patent Cliff Impact - Bristol Myers Squibb's stock is down over 25% from its peak due to the impending patent expirations of key drugs, leading to a potential decline in sales [2][4]. - The company anticipates a 48.9% drop in Revlimid sales to $2.9 billion and a 61.7% decrease in Sprycel sales to $493 million by 2025 [4]. - The patents for top-selling drugs Eliquis and Opdivo will expire between 2027 and 2029, which together generated $24.4 billion in sales in 2025, approximately half of the company's total revenue [4]. Growth Potential - Excluding Opdivo, Bristol Myers Squibb's growth portfolio saw a 23% increase in sales, reaching $16.3 billion in 2025 [5]. - Cobenfy, a new antipsychotic drug for schizophrenia, is in phase 3 trials for Alzheimer's-related psychosis, with potential annual sales of $3.4 billion by 2030 if approved [5]. Financial Metrics - Bristol Myers Squibb has a market capitalization of $124 billion, with a current stock price of $60.66 and a dividend yield of 4.10% [6][7]. - Analysts project a decline in total sales from $48.2 billion in 2025 to $45.2 billion by the end of 2027, with earnings expected to remain flat in 2026 [7][8]. Investment Considerations - The current dividend is considered safe, costing less than half of the company's earnings, which may provide stability during business contractions [8]. - The stock is trading at less than 10 times this year's earnings estimates, reflecting the market's awareness of the patent cliff [8]. - If Cobenfy succeeds, it could offset the lost sales from Eliquis and Opdivo, potentially leading to business growth and a rise in stock valuation [9].