The 1 Stock I'd Buy Before American Express Right Now

Core Viewpoint - American Express and Visa are strong investment options, with Visa being more compelling due to its business model and current valuation [1][11]. Group 1: Company Performance - American Express has increased by 160.4% over the last five years, outperforming the S&P 500's 73.7% gain [1]. - Visa has experienced a decline of 11.2% over the past year, while American Express has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 for five consecutive years [6]. Group 2: Business Models - Visa operates as a payment processor without bearing credit risk, partnering with banks like JPMorgan Chase, which issues cards and assumes credit risk [2]. - American Express functions as both a payment processor and card issuer, making it riskier due to its exposure to credit risk and high costs associated with rewards programs [4]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - Visa is characterized as a capital-light, high-margin business, with expenses primarily related to labor, cybersecurity, and marketing, allowing it to generate profits without significant capital investment [5]. - Visa is currently trading at a discount to its five-year median price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-free-cash-flow (FCF) ratios, while American Express is trading at a premium [6]. Group 4: Market Concerns - Visa, Mastercard, and American Express have seen declines between 8.8% and 10.4% year-to-date, attributed to consumer spending concerns and a proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates [8]. - The proposed cap may lead to limited credit access for consumers with lower credit scores, potentially increasing reliance on higher-interest options like payday loans [9]. Group 5: Investment Appeal - Visa is well-positioned to navigate economic uncertainty and industry policy changes, making its current valuation attractive for investors [11]. - Visa is recognized as a leading card brand globally, with a solid balance sheet and international exposure, appealing to a wide range of investors [12][13].