美学者访华后坦言，关税难阻中国崛起

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing debate in the U.S. regarding trade policies towards China, highlighting a lack of consensus among policymakers and intellectuals on how to approach the competition with China [1][3] - Steven Ratner, a former advisor to the U.S. Treasury Secretary, argues that the U.S. has not won the trade war with China, emphasizing the need for a reevaluation of the nature of competition [1][3] Trade Dynamics - The trade war's initial logic was to pressure China through tariffs to alter its behavior and reshape supply chains, but the expected outcomes have not materialized, as China remains the world's largest exporter with record trade surpluses [3][4] - Structural inertia in China's economy, characterized by long-term advantages in manufacturing, cost control, and logistics, makes it difficult for U.S. policies to significantly alter global trade dynamics in the short term [3][4] Technological Competition - Ratner notes China's rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and drug development, indicating that competition is not solely determined by semiconductor capabilities but also by factors like power supply, talent, and data resources [3][4] - The automotive industry is experiencing a structural shift, with Chinese companies excelling in electrification and smart systems, leading to a recognition of their technological advantages by U.S. firms like Ford [4][6] Pharmaceutical Sector Changes - China's transition from a technology importer to an exporter in drug development is evident, with an increase in clinical trials and enhanced innovation capabilities, reflecting a shift in the international division of labor in the pharmaceutical industry [6][9] - The changing landscape in pharmaceuticals is influenced by a more proactive role of the Chinese government in prioritizing certain industries, which contrasts with the U.S. approach of minimal government intervention [6][9] Policy and Strategic Considerations - The U.S. faces challenges not just from a binary choice of "hardline or soft" policies but from the need for consistent policy and strategic patience in the face of long-term technological competition [6][9] - Ratner criticizes the inconsistency of policies under the Trump administration, suggesting that cuts to research and science funding could undermine the U.S.'s long-term competitive foundation [6][9] Internal vs. External Competition - The article emphasizes that true competition begins with internal structural adjustments rather than solely relying on external pressures like tariffs and sanctions [7][10] - The narrative of competition is evolving, with a focus on how countries can rebuild growth momentum and maintain stability amid uncertainty and technological change [10]