大摩评价MiniMax“全球顶尖基座模型稀缺资产”，高估值核心逻辑在于“技术决定天花板、全球化决定估值”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiates coverage of MiniMax with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of 930 HKD, positioning it as a "global leader in AI foundational models" [1] Group 1: Model Capabilities - MiniMax is considered to have entered the global SOTA model tier, with comprehensive multimodal capabilities and a highly scalable commercialization path [1] - In independent benchmark tests, MiniMax-M2 ranked fifth globally among LLMs, while the latest flagship model MiniMax-M2.5 ranked sixth and fourth among open-source models [2] - The company employs MoE architecture and Linear Attention mechanisms, achieving a Model Flop Utilization exceeding 75%, significantly higher than the industry average of 40%-50% [8] Group 2: Revenue Growth and Structure - Revenue is projected to grow from 75 million USD in 2025 to 700 million USD in 2027, representing a 9-10x increase over two years [1] - MiniMax's business model is driven by three parallel lines, with MAU expected to grow from 3.1 million in 2023 to 27.6 million by the first nine months of 2025 [10] - The Open Platform revenue share is anticipated to rise from 29% in 2024 to 40% in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 200% [10] Group 3: Globalization and Valuation - MiniMax's overseas revenue share increased from 19% in 2023 to 73% in the first nine months of 2025, with a regional distribution of 61% in Asia-Pacific, 24% in the Americas, and 15% in EMEA [11] - The global foundational model market is expected to grow from 10.7 billion USD in 2024 to 206.5 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 80.7% [12] - The valuation logic is closely tied to international comparables, with a projected 54x P/S ratio for 2027 based on revenue primarily from overseas markets [12] Group 4: Future Scenarios and Risks - The valuation differences hinge on whether the next-generation model, set to launch in mid-2026, achieves or surpasses global SOTA levels [14] - The report emphasizes that the competition in the foundational model industry is driven by technological breakthroughs rather than marketing [15] - Current cash burn is projected at approximately 279 million USD monthly in 2025, indicating limited visibility on profitability [15]