大反转，关税被判违法后，特朗普硬刚全球加征10%，还要打5年官司，一夜之间全乱了，美国GDP增速腰斩，美联储降梦悬了

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's global tariff policy, declaring it illegal, which led to Trump announcing a new 10% tariff on all imports to the U.S. under a different legal framework, but this new tariff can only last for 150 days without Congressional approval [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Changes - Trump's new tariff of 10% on all imports is set to take effect within three days, following the Supreme Court's ruling [1]. - The previous tariff policy, which generated over $175 billion, is now rendered ineffective due to the court's decision [3]. - The Supreme Court's ruling has left unresolved questions regarding the potential refund of over $100 billion in tariffs already paid by U.S. companies, which could lead to a lengthy legal battle [3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reaction - Following the Supreme Court's ruling, U.S. stock indices saw a significant rise, indicating a temporary relief from concerns over Trump's tariff policies affecting corporate profits [4]. - However, subsequent economic data revealed a disappointing GDP growth rate of only 1.4% for Q4 2025, significantly below the expected 3.0% and marking the slowest growth since Q1 2025 [6][7]. - The government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, was cited as a major factor contributing to the GDP decline, with federal spending dropping sharply [7]. Group 3: Inflation and Federal Reserve Response - Despite weak economic growth, inflation remains a concern, with the PCE price index showing a year-over-year increase of 2.9% in December, exceeding expectations [10]. - The Federal Reserve faces challenges as inflation persists while economic growth slows, leading to a reversal in market expectations for interest rate cuts [10][12]. - A key Federal Reserve official, Stephen Milan, revised his stance on interest rate cuts, indicating a more cautious approach due to stronger-than-expected employment data and persistent inflation [12][13].