2026 年全球展望──大局变迁

Core Insights - The global market is undergoing a structural transformation characterized by rapid changes in monetary, fiscal, geopolitical, and technological domains, moving away from a low-interest, globalized stability towards an uncertain new order [11][9][12] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the 2026 economic landscape, driven by nationalist industrial policies and fiscal spending, which will boost capital expenditure cycles [1][3] - Differentiated development characteristics are observed across various asset classes and regional markets, with developed economies (excluding the UK) expected to accelerate growth [1][3] Investment Strategies - In the artificial intelligence sector, a "barbell strategy" is recommended, focusing on short-term investments in data center infrastructure providers and long-term investments in emerging AI application areas [1][19] - Digital assets, particularly Bitcoin, have seen a market capitalization surpassing $2 trillion, with narrowing price volatility and institutional investor interest, suggesting potential as a wealth accumulation tool [1][23] - Water scarcity is identified as a significant global risk, driven by population growth and climate issues, presenting investment opportunities in water infrastructure, water-saving technologies, and recycling sectors [1][27] Asset Allocation - In the stock market, selective stock picking is essential, with U.S. tech stocks driven by AI but facing high valuations, while the Eurozone shows optimistic earnings expectations [2][3] - The fixed income market is expected to see structural increases in long-term bond yields, favoring high-quality, liquid corporate bonds [2] - The dollar is expected to weaken moderately, while the euro benefits from stable policies, and the Swiss franc remains a quality safe-haven asset [2] Regional Developments - The U.S. economy is projected to accelerate, with AI investments peaking and a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [3][34] - The UK faces high fiscal and political uncertainty despite easing inflation, while Switzerland's economy stabilizes with a strong franc and promising healthcare sector performance [3][34] - China leads in digital economy and electric vehicle sectors, with a GDP growth rate around 5%, while India emerges as a new growth engine in Asia with improving infrastructure and manufacturing exports [3][34]