Did Micron Technology Just Send a $200 Billion Warning to Shareholders?

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology is significantly increasing its capital expenditures to expand memory production capacity, with plans to invest over $200 billion in new fabs in the U.S. and additional investments overseas, amidst a booming demand for memory driven by the AI industry [2][5][10]. Group 1: Company Overview - Micron's stock has surged nearly 300% over the past year due to a generational shortage in memory and storage [1]. - The company has a current market capitalization of $482 billion, with a gross margin of 45.53% and a dividend yield of 0.11% [3]. - Micron's recent investments include $50 billion for two new fabs in Idaho and a $100 billion facility near Syracuse, New York, totaling $200 billion in U.S. investments [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Prices for memory and NAND storage have increased by over 90% in Q1 and are expected to rise another 20% in Q2 [4]. - The AI industry's shift from training to inference has led to a surge in memory demand, particularly for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is essential for AI applications [3][11]. Group 3: Investment Risks and Opportunities - Micron's aggressive expansion could lead to oversupply if demand does not keep pace, reminiscent of past industry cycles where increased supply led to price crashes [7][8]. - However, the current demand for HBM is inelastic, meaning AI companies will continue to purchase it regardless of price, making this cycle potentially different from previous ones [11][13]. - Analysts project Micron to earn $33.92 per share this fiscal year and $44.55 per share in fiscal 2027, with potential earnings exceeding 25% of its current market cap [14][15].