春节期间的关注点：国内高频数据消费有所回暖，美国国内博弈更加关税不确定性，全球资本市场股市多数上涨，油价攀升金银修复

Group 1: Domestic High-Frequency Data - Retail and catering sales showed a significant increase, with average daily sales during the first four days of the Spring Festival rising by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous year [2][10] - Travel activity also increased, with an average daily passenger volume of 30.99 million during the Spring Festival, representing a 10.9% increase from 2025. Railway travel increased by 13.3% to 11.44 million, while civil aviation travel rose by 8.9% to 2.46 million [2][10] - Box office revenue for the Spring Festival was low, with an estimated total of around 6 billion yuan, which is below the levels of the past three years and similar to 2022 [2][10] - Real estate transactions were low during the Spring Festival, with average daily sales in 30 major cities at seasonal lows, making the data less relevant for broader analysis [2][10] Group 2: Overseas Macro Environment - The U.S. is experiencing increased uncertainty regarding tariffs due to internal conflicts between judicial and executive branches, with a recent Supreme Court ruling declaring many tariffs imposed by the previous administration as legally invalid [3][25] - Economic growth in the U.S. has slowed, with Q4 GDP rising by only 1.4%, significantly lower than the 4.4% growth in Q3, influenced by government shutdowns and reduced consumer spending [4][25] - Inflation pressures remain, with the core PCE price index rising to 3.0% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 2.8%, which may complicate future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [4][25] Group 3: Global Capital Markets - Most global stock indices rose during the Spring Festival, with the South Korean market leading with a 3.09% increase. The U.S. stock market also saw slight gains, with the Nasdaq up 1.51% and the S&P 500 up 1.07% [5][34] - Oil prices increased by 5.7% due to geopolitical tensions, while gold and silver prices recovered, with silver rising by 5.6% and gold by 0.7% during the same period [5][40] - Bond yields in major economies mostly declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly rising to 4.08%, while other regions like Germany and France saw decreases in long-term bond yields [5][38] Group 4: Post-Festival Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue strengthening post-festival, supported by a weak economic backdrop and low financing demand, which provides overall protection for the bond market [6][43] - Seasonal declines in funding demand and limited impact from central bank liquidity withdrawal are anticipated, maintaining a loose monetary environment [6][43] - The low positions of trading institutions and the continued allocation by investment institutions driven by lower costs and declining yields from other assets are expected to stabilize the market [6][43]