Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a downward revision of IFBH's net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 12.2%, 11.6%, and 11.7% respectively, resulting in projected profits of $23.34 million, $29.90 million, and $34.90 million, with a target price reduction of 11.36% to HKD 19.5, suggesting a potential upside of 31.05% from the current valuation [1] Group 1 - The company forecasts a year-on-year decline in net profit for 2025 by 27% to 32%, estimating a range of $2.265 million to $2.432 million, with adjusted net profit (excluding listing expenses) expected to decrease by 25% to 20%, slightly below CICC's expectations [2] - The IF brand is expected to grow healthily, with projected revenue growth of 15% to 20% year-on-year, while Innococo is anticipated to experience a high double-digit decline in revenue due to short-term channel adjustments, putting overall revenue under pressure [3] - The company is actively addressing challenges by appointing COFCO as Innococo's distributor in China, with expectations that channel adjustments are nearing completion [3] Group 2 - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the second half of 2025, projecting a year-on-year decrease of 51% to 41%, resulting in profits between $768,000 and $934,000, with net profit margins declining by 9.3 to 11.3 percentage points [4] - The appreciation of the Thai Baht against the US Dollar is expected to continue impacting the company's gross margin negatively, while sales and distribution expenses are projected to rise due to foreign exchange fluctuations [4] - Despite increased marketing expenses due to the appointment of brand ambassadors and promotional activities, the decline in Innococo's revenue is expected to lead to a rise in marketing expense ratios [4]
中金：维持IFBH(06603) 跑赢行业评级 下调目标价至19.5港元