春节海外市场回顾：IEEPA违法后特朗普的Plan B

Group 1: Major Asset Review - During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas markets experienced significant events including the escalation of the Iran geopolitical conflict, ongoing concerns regarding AI themes in the US stock market, and the release of important economic data such as CPI and GDP. Gold and the US dollar index rose, while US Treasury yields, stocks, and commodities initially declined before rebounding. Silver led the gains with a 12.44% increase, driven by the Iran situation and a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs [1][5][12] - The AI industry narrative showed divergence, with ongoing concerns about the valuation and monetization pace of US AI software, while Asian markets, particularly South Korea, reached new highs due to their core advantages in AI infrastructure [8][9] Group 2: Overseas Economic Insights - US economic data during the Spring Festival remained robust, with January core CPI and PCE inflation showing strong persistence. The Q4 2025 GDP was significantly below expectations due to government shutdown impacts, but other indicators like new housing starts and core durable goods orders exceeded forecasts, indicating overall steady growth [2][12][14] - The Q4 2025 US GDP growth rate was reported at 1.4%, well below the expected 2.8%, primarily affected by a -0.9% contribution from government spending, marking the largest drag since Q2 2020. Despite this, AI-related investments remained strong, and a rebound in government spending is anticipated to positively impact growth in Q1 2026 [14][21][26] Group 3: Overseas Political Developments - The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's IEEPA tariffs were illegal, leading to the announcement of a new 10% global tariff under Section 122, effective February 24. Trump threatened to increase tariffs on certain economies to 15%. This legislative move may include broader fiscal measures to ensure the legality of the tariffs [3][27][30] - The ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran regarding nuclear issues have seen some progress, but key disagreements remain. Trump has set a deadline for resolution, indicating a preference for negotiation supplemented by limited military action if necessary [3][35]