国金证券：中国高端消费筑底效应展现 重点推荐免税、黄金珠宝行业

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of high-end consumption in China is accelerating, driven primarily by the wealth effect of high-net-worth individuals and policy stimuli targeting the middle class [1] Group 1: Duty-Free Industry - The duty-free sector is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery of high-end consumption, with a low base and strong policy incentives driving growth [2] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port is anticipated to have a substantial impact on local and national duty-free businesses, with a continued trend of high-end consumption recovery [2] - China Duty Free Group is expected to see sustained performance growth, driven by both domestic demand recovery and the untapped potential of inbound tourist spending [2] Group 2: Gold and Jewelry - Rising gold prices are favorable for high-end self-consumption and brand transformation, with consumers increasingly valuing emotional connections over mere functionality [3] - The trend of store adjustments is expected to continue, with companies that expand their channels by 2026 likely to see greater performance elasticity [3] - Companies like Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji are expected to perform well due to strategic store optimization and product offerings [3] Group 3: Baijiu Industry - The baijiu industry is showing signs of recovery, with strong demand for premium products like Moutai, which has seen prices rise above 1,700 yuan per box [4] - The overall performance of the baijiu industry is expected to stabilize, with a gradual easing of price pressures and improved market conditions post-Spring Festival [4][5] Group 4: Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics market is entering a new phase, driven by innovative ingredients like recombinant collagen and PDRN, which meet the growing consumer demand for regenerative and anti-aging solutions [6] - Companies with early advantages in regulatory compliance are establishing significant barriers to entry, particularly in the emerging biocompatible materials market [6] - The market dominance of these new ingredients is expected to follow a clear hierarchy, with recombinant collagen leading the way [6]