春节假期海外四大要闻：美伊危机继续升级，特朗普发出通牒；FOMC会议纪要发布，美联储维持中性偏鹰；美国最高法院推翻特朗普“紧急”关税；高市早苗高票连任第105代首相

Group 1: Market Performance During Spring Festival - Global major stock indices mostly rose, with South Korea, France, and the UK leading in gains. From February 16 to 20, the Korean Composite Index rose by 5.5%, CAC40 by 2.5%, FTSE 100 by 2.3%, and others showed similar increases, while the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 fell by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [2][10] - Global major 10-year government bond yields mostly declined, except for US Treasury yields which rose by 4.0 basis points. The yields for 10-year Japanese, French, British, and Italian bonds fell by 6.1, 3.8, 2.7, and 2.3 basis points respectively [2][10] - Most global commodities saw price increases, with Brent crude oil rising by 5.9%, WTI crude by 5.7%, and London spot silver by 4.1% during the same period [2][10] - Among major currencies, the Japanese yen and British pound experienced significant declines, falling by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, while the US dollar index rose by 0.9% [2][10] Group 2: Geopolitical Events Impacting Markets - The US-Iran crisis escalated with indirect negotiations taking place in Geneva, while the US increased military presence in the region. If negotiations fail or military action occurs, the market is pricing in potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rise in WTI crude oil prices from approximately $62.33 to $66.39, marking a 6.5% increase [3][20][22] - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated a neutral but hawkish stance, with most members agreeing that current rates are appropriate. The market expects a potential rate cut of about 60 basis points this year, reflecting a slight easing compared to previous expectations [4][27][30] Group 3: Legal and Trade Developments - The US Supreme Court ruled against Trump's large-scale tariffs, stating that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize such actions. This ruling could lead to a decrease in supply chain costs and improve corporate profit expectations [5][33][35] - Following the Supreme Court's decision, Trump announced a new 10% tariff on global imports for 150 days, which he later increased to 15%. This move may provoke retaliatory actions from major trading partners [5][35] Group 4: Political Developments in Japan - Fumio Kishida was re-elected as Japan's Prime Minister, emphasizing a fiscal policy focused on significant tax cuts and public investment in infrastructure, semiconductors, AI, and green energy. This policy is expected to boost Japan's GDP growth forecast for 2026 [7][39]