张军：告别经济“温差”，要避免增长过于结构性

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the Chinese economy, emphasizing that while it has achieved significant growth and development, there are challenges ahead that require careful policy adjustments to maintain sustainable growth before reaching the status of a moderately developed country [2][3]. Economic Development - China's economy has lifted nearly 800 million people out of poverty and developed a comprehensive infrastructure network, including advanced highways, high-speed rail, and telecommunications [3]. - The manufacturing sector has evolved from simple processing to advanced capabilities, with significant achievements in artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and biomedicine [3]. - Despite these advancements, there remains a considerable gap between current development and long-term planning goals, necessitating a reasonable growth rate over the next decade [3][4]. GDP Growth Projections - To increase per capita GDP from approximately $14,000 to over $25,000 by 2035, an annual nominal growth rate of about 6% is required, considering a projected annual population decline of 0.35% [4]. - In 2025, actual GDP growth is projected at 5%, with nominal growth at only 3.9%, indicating a discrepancy between actual growth and economic conditions [4][5]. Structural Growth Issues - The growth has become increasingly concentrated in a few sectors, such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, leading to a cooling macroeconomic environment despite a 5% actual GDP growth [5]. - The trend of shrinking total demand and income flow has resulted in deflationary pressures, causing nominal GDP growth to lag behind actual GDP growth [5]. Policy Recommendations - Economic policies should focus on balancing structural growth risks and maintaining macroeconomic stability, rather than solely targeting actual GDP growth rates [5][6]. - The central bank's monetary policy should prioritize price stability and actual unemployment, aligning with the practices of most central banks globally [5][6]. - A shift in focus from quantity-based monetary tools to price-based tools is necessary to alleviate macroeconomic tightening pressures and support a return to normal economic conditions [6].