Goldman raises Q4 oil price outlook on lower OECD stocks

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent and WTI crude forecasts by $6 to $60 and $56 respectively, citing lower OECD stocks while maintaining a surplus outlook for the year [1][3] - For the year 2026, Goldman expects Brent to average $64 per barrel, up from a previous estimate of $56, and WTI to average $60, an increase from $52 [1][7] - The bank's surplus forecast for 2026 is 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), assuming no major supply disruptions and no resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][4] Group 2 - Goldman downgraded its supply outlook for Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq due to production misses, while upgrading expectations for the Americas and core OPEC countries with spare capacity [4] - The bank anticipates OPEC+ to gradually increase production starting in Q2 2026, as OECD inventories have not built up [4] - Potential sanctions relief for Iran or Russia could lead to downside risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI in Q4 2026, with average prices expected to rise to $65 and $61 respectively in 2027 [5]