Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-23 09:17Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow bull market in 2026, driven by a recovery in corporate earnings and moderate valuation expansion, with the Shanghai Composite Index projected to rise between 10% and 15% [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current upward cycle of the A-share market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven phase to a profitability-driven phase, with key indicators such as PPI recovery signaling substantial improvements in corporate earnings [5]. - Daily trading volume in the A-share market has remained above 2 trillion yuan since 2026, indicating strong market activity [5]. - A net inflow of approximately 1.56 trillion yuan is anticipated in 2026, supported by favorable conditions in the past two years and a high return rate environment [5]. Group 2: Fund Supply and Demand - Public funds are expected to continue their recovery trend, with potential improvements in active fund redemptions if they can overcome profitability challenges [5]. - Insurance funds are projected to see improved premium income, supported by policies encouraging increased stock market investments [5]. - Private equity funds are likely to attract high-net-worth individuals, contributing significant incremental capital to the market [5]. - The appreciation of the renminbi is expected to attract foreign capital inflows, further supporting A-share valuations [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment strategies for the year should focus on two main themes: domestic demand recovery and technological self-sufficiency, creating a dual-driven growth pattern [6]. - The recovery of the consumer services sector is anticipated to be driven by multiple factors, including policy support and economic recovery, leading to a shift towards high-value experience consumption [6]. - In the realm of technological self-sufficiency, the domestic AI chip market is expected to surpass foreign competitors, driven by both external pressures and internal demand for AI [6]. - Key areas for self-sufficiency include integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and foundational software [6].