智谱、MiniMax合计蒸发近千亿市值，原因为何？

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the large model sector, has shown significant volatility, with companies like Zhipu (2513.HK) and MiniMax (0100.HK) experiencing substantial declines after reaching high market valuations, highlighting operational challenges in the face of rapid growth and demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhipu's stock price fell by 22.76% and MiniMax's by 13.35% on February 23, resulting in a combined market value loss of nearly 100 billion HKD from their peak valuations [1]. - Zhipu's stock surged from an initial price of 116.2 HKD on January 8 to a peak of 725 HKD on February 20, marking a cumulative increase of 524% before the decline [3]. - MiniMax's stock rose from an initial price of 165 HKD on January 9 to a high of 970 HKD on February 20, reflecting a cumulative increase of 488% before experiencing a significant drop [3]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Following the release of GLM-5, Zhipu faced a "computing power squeeze," leading to an apology letter that acknowledged three key mistakes: insufficient transparency, slow upgrade pace, and poorly designed upgrade mechanisms for existing users [1][2]. - The rapid influx of users after the GLM-5 release prompted Zhipu to increase prices by at least 30% due to high demand, indicating a misalignment between operational capacity and market expectations [2]. - Both Zhipu and MiniMax are grappling with high training costs, ongoing losses, and the need for improved computing infrastructure, with Zhipu reporting adjusted net losses of 0.97 billion, 6.21 billion, and 24.66 billion CNY over the past three years, while MiniMax's cumulative losses are approximately 13.2 billion USD (about 92.9 billion CNY) over four years [3]. Group 3: Market Comparison - Zhipu claims that GLM-5's performance is comparable to Claude Opus 4.5, yet Anthropic is recognized for its rapid commercialization, with its annual recurring revenue (ARR) projected to rise from 100 million USD in 2023 to 14 billion USD by February 2026 [4]. - The comparison highlights that, beyond model performance, domestic models like Zhipu still need to enhance their commercialization and computing infrastructure [4]. - Industry analysis suggests that by 2026, the focus will shift from model performance scores to practical application, service stability, and cost control, indicating that usability will be a critical measure of a company's strength and potential [4][5].