高盛上调Q4油价预期 但坚持押注全年“供应过剩”

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs unexpectedly raised its forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil prices for Q4 2026, citing low OECD oil inventories as a core reason, while maintaining a pessimistic outlook on market oversupply for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs increased its Q4 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $60 per barrel and WTI to $56 per barrel, up by $6 from previous estimates [1][2]. - The average price forecast for Brent crude for the year is now $64 per barrel, up from $56, while WTI is forecasted at $60, up from $52, but still significantly lower than current prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Goldman Sachs maintains a forecast of a supply surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026, assuming no major supply disruptions and that the Russia-Ukraine conflict does not reach a peace agreement [2][3]. - The forecast reflects a downward adjustment of 200,000 bpd for both supply and demand due to weakening economic growth in Asia, resulting in a balanced outlook [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - The report indicates that easing geopolitical tensions could lead to a gradual reduction of the previously estimated $6 risk premium, while also highlighting the risk of increased supply from Iran and Russia [2][3]. - The potential for sanctions relief on Iran or Russia could lead to significant downward price risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI in Q4 2026 [3]. Group 4: Inventory and Production Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to begin gradually increasing production in Q2 2026, given that OECD inventories have not significantly accumulated [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a potential significant oversupply in early 2026, particularly in Q1, with supply expected to exceed demand [3].