摩根大通预警2026年铝市缺口23万吨，铜铝价格中枢或将大幅上移

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the global aluminum market is expected to face a supply gap of approximately 230,000 tons by 2026, with an average price forecast of $3,200 per ton in the second quarter of 2026, and continued support for aluminum prices in the second half of the year [1] - The report also predicts a similar tightening in the copper market, estimating a supply gap of 130,000 tons by 2026, with price forecasts of $13,500 per ton in the second quarter and $13,000 per ton in the third quarter [1] - The demand structure for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is undergoing significant changes, driven by accelerated data center construction, upgrades in electrical infrastructure, and the expansion of the renewable energy sector, moving away from traditional real estate cycle dependency [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, the expansion of global electrolytic aluminum capacity is constrained by factors such as energy costs and environmental policies, leading to a slower pace of new capacity release [1] - Additionally, some resource-rich countries are tightening supply elasticity by increasing resource taxes and setting export quotas, further impacting the supply side [1] - These structural changes on both the supply and demand sides provide a strong foundation for long-term support of aluminum prices [1]