创17年最低！中方强行将美债持仓按回08年警戒线，老美扛不住了

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds, decreasing by $6.1 billion to $682.6 billion, the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, while simultaneously increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, indicating a shift in the global monetary system and a weakening of the dollar's dominance [1][5]. Group 1: US Debt and Economic Impact - The US national debt has surged, surpassing $37 trillion for the first time in August 2025 and reaching $37.85 trillion by October, equating to over $110,000 per citizen [3]. - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to exceed $1.3 trillion in 2025, surpassing the US defense budget and creating a significant fiscal burden for the government [3]. - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" in May 2025, marking the loss of all AAA ratings from major international rating agencies [3]. Group 2: China's Gold Reserves and Currency Strategy - As of November 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces, a nearly 40% increase from the low in 2022, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold accumulation [5]. - The structure of China's foreign exchange reserves has changed, with the proportion of dollar assets declining from 79% in 2015 to approximately 58% by June 2025, indicating a move from "credit currency" to "physical assets" [7]. - The internationalization of the renminbi is accelerating, with it becoming the largest currency for China's external payments and the third-largest global payment currency by 2025 [7]. Group 3: Global De-dollarization Trends - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating globally, with the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves falling below 50%, as countries seek to diversify their assets [9]. - There is a divergence among US allies regarding US Treasury holdings; Japan and the UK have increased their holdings, while Canada has significantly reduced its exposure, indicating a potential risk-hedging strategy [9]. Group 4: Political Dynamics and Market Reactions - The political polarization in the US has eroded the credit foundation of US debt, exemplified by a historic 43-day government shutdown in October 2025, raising concerns among foreign holders about the US's debt repayment stability [5]. - The US government's response to China's reduction of Treasury holdings has shifted from a hardline stance to a more pragmatic approach, reflecting the complexities of international relations [14].