大摩力挺瑞郎：最像黄金的避险货币、被低估的“黑马”！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Swiss franc (CHF) is gaining recognition as a safe-haven currency amid increasing policy uncertainty in the U.S., with expectations of a potential 17% rise against the U.S. dollar [1] - Morgan Stanley's strategy team, led by David Adams, highlights Switzerland's low inflation, robust fiscal position, and asset safety as factors making the CHF comparable to gold as a safe-haven currency [1][3] - In a pessimistic scenario, the USD/CHF exchange rate could drop to a historical low of 0.64, while the current trading level is around 0.776 [1] Group 2 - Adams describes the CHF as an overlooked and undervalued safe-haven asset, suggesting that its appreciation may exceed investor expectations and market pricing [3] - Hedge funds are increasingly betting on the strength of the CHF, with the latest data from the CFTC indicating that leveraged funds hold the largest net long position in CHF since June of the previous year [3] - Last month, the CHF reached its strongest levels against both the euro and the dollar in over a decade, driven by Switzerland's moderate debt levels, stable economy, and predictable policies, contrasting with U.S. policy chaos and rising geopolitical risks [3] Group 3 - Despite the potential for a stronger CHF to prompt the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to intervene in the market to suppress the currency and alleviate deflationary pressures, many economists believe the SNB's willingness to curb CHF appreciation has decreased [4] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the CHF will continue to strengthen against other currencies, predicting that the EUR/CHF exchange rate could decline by 5% from the current level of approximately 0.91 to 0.87 [4]