又一降息派动摇！沃勒：美联储3月政策取决于非农

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed an open attitude towards maintaining interest rates if the upcoming February employment data shows a stronger labor market following a weak performance in 2025 [1] - In January, the U.S. added 130,000 jobs, which was considered a significant upside surprise, and if this trend continues into February, Waller may lean towards pausing actions at the upcoming meeting [1] - Waller previously voted against keeping rates unchanged in January, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to concerns over weak job growth and potential rising unemployment [1] Group 2 - The January employment report was significantly better than expected, indicating a steady pace of job growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate [2] - Waller welcomed the positive data but expressed concerns that it might be more noise than signal, especially given the revisions showing nearly zero net job growth in 2025, indicating a weak and fragile job market [2] - Waller described the decision between a rate cut or maintaining rates in March as akin to "flipping a coin" [3] Group 3 - Waller attributed the current rise in inflation largely to import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, suggesting that inflation could decline as businesses adjust to these tax burdens [3] - The recent Supreme Court ruling that rejected most new tariffs adds uncertainty, but Waller believes it is unlikely to significantly impact the monetary policy path [3] - Waller indicated that, excluding the lagging effects of tariffs, inflation levels could approach 2%, prompting him to focus on the state of the labor market [3] Group 4 - The February employment data is set to be released on March 6, ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 17-18 [4] - A prominent rate-cut advocate, Stephen Miran, has retracted his earlier stance on significant rate cuts for the year, citing stronger-than-expected economic performance [4]