Nvidia Stock Is Stuck, But JPMorgan Anticipates Another 'Beat-And-Raise'

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's fundamentals are still accelerating despite recent stock stagnation, with expectations for a potential beat-and-raise quarter ahead [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Insights - Nvidia's stock has been trading around $187/share since the last earnings report, indicating a period of sideways movement [1]. - Analyst Harlan Sur from JPMorgan expresses confidence that Nvidia will likely deliver another beat-and-raise due to strong execution and increasing visibility into future growth [2]. Group 2: Product and Revenue Growth - The introduction of Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra platform is driving the next wave of growth, with rack shipments increasing to approximately 12,000 units in the January quarter, up from about 10,000 units previously [3]. - Nvidia is also shipping higher-priced GB300 systems, which have average selling prices that are 20% to 30% higher, contributing to revenue growth [3]. Group 3: Revenue Projections - The combination of volume growth and pricing strength could push Nvidia's revenue above Wall Street's estimate of $65.6 billion, with expectations for guidance of $74 billion to $75 billion in the next quarter [4]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - Demand for AI continues to outpace supply, with cloud providers indicating that limited AI compute availability is constraining their operations, reinforcing Nvidia's dominant market position [5]. - Nvidia's backlog has exceeded $500 billion, highlighting the scale of committed AI infrastructure spending from hyperscalers, suggesting strong support for datacenter growth well into 2027 [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - The current sideways movement of Nvidia's stock reflects rising expectations rather than weakening momentum, with the potential for another beat-and-raise to reset market narratives [6].