Can Rigetti's Q4 Earnings Validate Its Roadmap and Commercial Push?

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is set to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 4, 2026, which is anticipated to be a crucial update for investors assessing the company's recent commercial achievements and technical progress [1][9] Financial Performance - In the third quarter, RGTI's revenue fell by 18% year-over-year to $1.9 million, with a significant reduction in gross margin to 21% due to contract mix and pricing variability [1][2] - The company has secured $5.7 million in Novera system purchase orders and a $5.8 million AFRL contract, which are expected to positively impact fourth-quarter revenue [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2026 earnings suggests a substantial 74.3% improvement compared to the previous year [12] Strategic Developments - Rigetti has revised the timeline for the general availability of its 108-qubit quantum computing system, Cepheus-1-108Q, now aiming for availability by the end of Q1 2026 [3] - Investors should monitor updates regarding DARPA Phase B engagement and developments related to NVIDIA's NVQLink hybrid computing ecosystem [4] Market Position and Valuation - Rigetti's shares have increased by 7.4% over the last six months, contrasting with an 18.2% decline in the industry [8] - The company currently has a price-to-book ratio of 14.13, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [11]