This China Wildcard Could Supercharge Nvidia — $3 Billion At A Time

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. export policy has shifted, allowing Nvidia's H200 shipments to China and Macau to be reviewed on a case-by-case basis, potentially increasing future sales opportunities [1] Group 1: Revenue Potential - China remains a significant source of demand for Nvidia, with each 100,000-unit shipment estimated to generate approximately $3 billion in revenue, indicating substantial financial upside if export approvals are granted [2] - The demand for AI compute in China is strong, and any easing of export approvals could quickly convert this demand into revenue [2] Group 2: Backlog and Demand - Nvidia currently has a backlog exceeding $500 billion, driven by robust global demand and significant investments in AI infrastructure from hyperscalers [3] - The company is expected to report another strong quarter, supported by increasing Blackwell shipments and favorable pricing [3] Group 3: Growth Opportunities - Even without the Chinese market, demand continues to exceed supply; however, accelerated export approvals could provide an additional growth lever for Nvidia [4] - The potential revenue tied to export decisions positions China as a wildcard that could significantly enhance Nvidia's growth trajectory [4]