英媒：新兴市场或再迎强劲行情？

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are experiencing a strong rebound, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend, especially in light of the historical context of their performance and the influence of the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The MSCI index tracking emerging markets rose by 34% in 2025, significantly outperforming developed markets, which saw a 21% increase [2]. - In early 2026, emerging markets continued to rise, accumulating a 9% increase within the first month [2]. - Various emerging market currencies, such as the Mexican peso and Malaysian ringgit, have appreciated against the US dollar, and local currency-denominated emerging market bonds have significantly outperformed high-yield bonds in Europe and the US [2]. Group 2: Dollar Influence - The performance of emerging markets is closely tied to the movements of the US dollar, which has seen a decline of approximately 11% from its peak in 2025 [2]. - Historical data indicates that emerging market stocks tend to perform well during periods of dollar weakness, suggesting potential for further gains if the dollar continues to weaken [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Active fund managers currently have their lowest allocation to emerging market stocks in nearly 20 years, indicating potential for a significant shift in capital flows towards these markets [3]. - Emerging markets are attractive not only for those looking to "sell America" but also for investors seeking valuation advantages, economic resilience, and global growth prospects [3]. Group 4: Valuation and Risk - Emerging market stocks are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 13 times expected earnings for the next year, representing about a 40% discount compared to the S&P 500 index [3]. - The risk profile of emerging markets has improved due to strengthened institutional frameworks, increased foreign exchange reserves, and proactive monetary policies, particularly in response to global inflation [4]. - The IMF projects that emerging markets will grow at a rate 2.4 percentage points higher than developed economies in 2026, supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment [4].