美国最高法院一锤定音，特朗普对等关税被判违法！1750亿美元退款风暴来袭，全球贸易一夜变天

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the president does not have the authority to impose tariffs without explicit congressional approval, leading to the termination of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [2][5]. Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Changes - The Supreme Court's decision emphasized that the Constitution grants tax authority to Congress, and the law used by the Trump administration did not mention tariffs or taxes [2]. - The ruling invalidated tariffs that accounted for approximately 75% of the Trump administration's tariff revenue since 2025, including the "reciprocal tariffs" and "fentanyl tariffs" [2]. - Following the ruling, Trump announced a new executive order to impose a 10% import tariff on all countries, which was later increased to 15% [3][5]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The total amount collected from the invalidated tariffs was approximately $133 billion, with estimates suggesting refunds could reach up to $175 billion, exceeding the total budget of the U.S. Departments of Transportation and Justice for the fiscal year 2025 [5]. - The refund process is expected to be complex, involving over 300,000 importers and requiring verification of customs payment receipts [6]. Group 3: Impact on Trade Relations - The new 15% global tariff is based on a specific trade law with a time limit, contrasting with the previous emergency-based tariffs, and applies uniformly to all trade partners [6]. - This uniform approach may complicate existing agreements with allies like the UK, Japan, and the EU, which were based on the now-invalidated tariff structure [7]. - China's situation has changed, as the previous tariffs targeting Chinese goods have been lifted, but the overall effective tariff rate on Chinese imports could still range from 30% to 40% when considering existing tariffs [9]. Group 4: Political and Strategic Considerations - The Supreme Court's ruling represents a significant check on presidential power, indicating that trade policy will now require more legislative involvement [10]. - The next 150 days will be critical as the Trump administration seeks to extend the new tariffs and navigate the complexities of the legal and political landscape surrounding trade policy [10].