Nvidia Q4 Preview: Analyst Says Tech Giant May Be Overlooked — 'Share Price Is Discounting A 2026 Peak In AI Demand'

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Nvidia to report strong fourth-quarter results, with revenue projected to reach $65.64 billion, significantly up from $39.33 billion in the same quarter last year [2]. Earnings Estimates - Nvidia is anticipated to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.50, an increase from 89 cents per share in the previous year [2]. - The company's guidance for revenue is set between $63.70 billion and $66.30 billion [3]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on Nvidia, with a consensus Buy rating and a price target range from $195 to $352, averaging at $261.54 [4]. - KeyBanc analyst John Vinh has an Overweight rating with a price target of $275, while DA Davidson's Gil Luria has a Buy rating with a target of $250 [4][5]. Key Factors Influencing Results - Improvements in China are expected to drive strong quarterly results, with Vinh estimating that H200 shipments to China could contribute $3 billion to $3.5 billion in revenue [6]. - Continued strong demand for Blackwell products is also seen as a key driver for the quarter [7]. Market Context - Luria notes that the importance of Nvidia's earnings report may be less pronounced compared to previous years, as the market has identified other AI winners [8]. - Despite this, there is potential for Nvidia's stock to benefit, as current expectations may be underestimating future AI demand [9]. Investor Sentiment and Supply Chain - Bryson highlights that investor sentiment in the semiconductor sector could shift, with expectations that Nvidia will exceed estimates and provide positive guidance [10]. - Supply chain stability is viewed as crucial for Nvidia to maintain its market dominance through 2026 [11]. Stock Performance - Nvidia stock closed at $191.55, up 0.91%, with a year-to-date increase of 2.71% and a 47% rise over the last 52 weeks [12].