存储芯片涨价潮愈演愈烈 行业全面进入卖方市场(附概念股)

Core Insights - The storage industry has entered a seller's market driven by real demand from AI and limited cleanroom space, leading to continuous price increases in 2023 [1] - SK Hynix's DRAM and NAND inventory has dropped to approximately 4 weeks, with expectations for further declines throughout the year [1] - The capacity for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for 2026 is already sold out, significantly enhancing suppliers' bargaining power [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The tight supply-demand situation for standard DRAM is expected to provide SK Hynix with more leverage in negotiations, potentially leading to better terms for HBM business in 2027 [1] - Capital expenditures for SK Hynix are projected to exceed last year's levels, focusing primarily on HBM and standard DRAM, while NAND investments will remain stable [2] - Samsung is negotiating prices for its latest AI storage chip HBM4, which is expected to be 20% to 30% higher than the previous generation, indicating a tight supply in the AI storage chip market [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Industry Outlook - Various storage products have seen significant price increases since Q1 2026, with expectations for continued price rises throughout the year [3] - The limited new supply expected in 2026 suggests that the storage shortage trend will persist into 2027, creating a favorable environment for companies in the storage and semiconductor sectors [3] - Overall, the semiconductor equipment and testing sectors are likely to benefit from the ongoing trends in the storage industry [2][3] Group 3: Related Companies - SMIC (00981) anticipates sales growth above the industry average for 2026, maintaining a steady capital expenditure pace [4] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) reported record sales in Q4 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 22.4%, and expects Q1 2026 sales between $650 million and $660 million [4] - Shanghai Fudan (01385) reported a total revenue of approximately 3.982 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit decline of 59.42% year-over-year [5]