库存增加叠加贸易不确定性，期铜自逾一周高点回落【2月23日LME收盘】

Group 1: Market Overview - LME copper prices fell by $95.5, or 0.74%, closing at $12,868.50 per ton, after reaching a one-week high of $13,050 [1] - Despite a 3% rebound over the past four trading days, copper prices remain significantly below the historical peak of $14,527.50 set on January 29 [1] Group 2: Inventory and Demand - LME copper inventory increased by 6,675 tons, or 2.84%, reaching 241,825 tons, the highest level since March 2025, with a 70% surge year-to-date [3] - The increase in inventory outside the U.S. suggests potential weakness in demand, although it remains unclear whether this is due to a shift from off-exchange warehouses or overall demand softness [3] Group 3: U.S. Tariff Uncertainty - The U.S. Supreme Court overturned a tariff order from former President Trump, leading to increased uncertainty in the metals, dollar, and stock markets [3] - Trump announced plans to raise the import tariff on global goods from 10% to 15%, with new legal tariffs to be determined in the coming months [3] Group 4: Future Supply Predictions - JPMorgan forecasts a supply deficit of 130,000 tons in the copper market by 2026, with expectations of a mild surplus in 2027 due to increased copper scrap supply and recovery of major mines [4] - The projected copper price for Q2 2026 is $13,500 per ton, decreasing to $13,000 per ton in Q3 2026 [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment - Traders are awaiting the resumption of trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with market sentiment hinging on potential additional domestic demand from China [5]