金荣中国：特朗普关税引发市场关注，短线金价持续走高维持涨势

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on February 23, opening at $5,109.38 per ounce, reaching a high of $5,204.99, a low of $5,099.20, and closing at $5,196.37 [1] Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated an openness to maintaining interest rates if February employment data shows a stabilization in the labor market after a weak performance in 2025. January's job additions were unexpectedly strong at 130,000, which could influence monetary policy decisions in March [3] - UBS maintains a positive outlook on gold, forecasting a target price of $6,200 per ounce in the coming months, driven by geopolitical risks and continued central bank purchases. Global gold demand is expected to exceed 5,000 tons by 2025, while supply growth appears limited due to the depletion of around 80 mines by 2028 [4] Trade Relations - President Trump warned that countries attempting to exploit recent Supreme Court rulings could face significantly higher tariffs than previously agreed. The EU has assessed that Trump's new tariff policies will raise tariffs on certain exports beyond the agreed 15% limit [5] - The U.S. House Speaker Johnson stated that the government would decide on the potential refund of $134 billion in tariffs following the Supreme Court ruling, indicating unprecedented circumstances [6] - Fitch Ratings noted that the U.S. long-term trade framework is in flux following the Supreme Court ruling, with significant uncertainties surrounding tariffs and trade policies [7] Geopolitical Situation - President Trump dismissed reports suggesting military opposition to Iran, asserting that any military action would be decisive. He emphasized a preference for negotiation over conflict [9] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March, with a 96% chance of maintaining current rates [9] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, with short-term trading strategies suggesting cautious high and low positions. The market shows signs of overbought conditions, indicating potential for price corrections [11][12]