中金：阶段性承压与新动能蓄势 燃料电池远期具备较大发展潜力

Core Viewpoint - The promotion of fuel cell vehicles during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period has not met expectations, with significant gaps remaining to achieve targets. The fuel cell industry is facing challenges such as weak growth, poor profitability, and accounts receivable backlog. However, the hydrogen energy strategy remains clear, and new support policies and expanding application scenarios are anticipated, suggesting potential for long-term growth in the fuel cell sector [1]. Group 1: Sales and Market Dynamics - In 2024, fuel cell vehicle sales have shown insufficient growth momentum, influenced by the policy window period. A surge in demand was observed in 4Q25, but there remains a gap to the 2025 phase target [2]. - The average price of fuel cell systems has decreased by nearly 90% since 2018, which poses significant challenges to profitability for fuel cell manufacturers, indicating that the industry is still in a bottoming phase [2]. Group 2: Bottlenecks in Promotion - The promotion of fuel cell vehicles faces multiple obstacles: first, the reduction of subsidies has highlighted cost disadvantages, intensifying competition from electric vehicles; second, the construction of hydrogen refueling stations has not met expectations, leading to issues with refueling convenience and insufficient investment motivation due to high construction costs; third, the long disbursement cycle of subsidy funds has resulted in accounts receivable backlog, putting pressure on company operations and potentially limiting the R&D and expansion capabilities of fuel cell manufacturers [3]. Group 3: Long-term Development Potential - Despite short-term pressures, the country positions hydrogen energy as a key component of the future national energy system, essential for achieving carbon neutrality in non-electric sectors. Policy-wise, various local hydrogen industry plans are advancing, with support measures such as toll reductions and "hydrogen corridors" being implemented. On the application front, fuel cell applications are expanding from transportation to power generation, energy storage, and rail transit, indicating a potential second growth curve that supports the industry's medium to long-term development [4].