Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-24 01:51Group 1 - The outlook for Hong Kong financial stocks is positive due to an active IPO market, structural cross-border capital flows, and a preliminary recovery in the residential property market [1] - The Federal Reserve's policies are expected to normalize HIBOR, with a forecast of a one-month HIBOR remaining at 2.5% in the first half of this year [1] - Credit costs are viewed conservatively, with a preference for banks with stable balance sheets and prudent risk profiles [1] Group 2 - The peak of non-performing loans in the industry is believed to have passed, with expectations that commercial real estate-related non-performing loans will stabilize this year, followed by a de-risking process over one to two years [1] - The most favored stock is Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388), which is seen as having greater leverage and currently undervalued, with an upgraded rating to "Buy" and a target price raised from HKD 373.94 to HKD 502 [1] - Local bank stocks are expected to yield positive returns this year, but may underperform international peers due to lower capital return levels; Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) and Bank of East Asia (00023) are rated "Hold," with a preference for the former due to its resilient fundamentals and higher return levels [1]