Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-24 02:09Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC (01876) is undergoing a deep adjustment period in the Chinese market, facing short-term performance pressure due to reform pains and external shocks, but positive signals are emerging from channel transformation, with preliminary improvements in market share observed in Q4 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, the company's revenue and EBITDA were $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8%; Q4 revenue and EBITDA were $1.07 billion and $170 million, down 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year [2] - The Chinese market significantly dragged down performance, with Q4 revenue and EBITDA declining by 11.4% and 42.3% year-on-year, and full-year revenue and EBITDA down 11.3% and 15.7% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year was $489 million, a decrease of 32.1% year-on-year, while cash flow remained robust with a dividend payout ratio increased to 153% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategy - The industry in China is experiencing stable volume but declining prices, with Budweiser APAC actively transforming its channels; the decline in sales volume in Q4 narrowed from 11% in Q3 to 3.9% [3] - The company is focusing on high-end product positioning and expanding into new channels like instant retail and O2O, with expectations for ASP improvement in 2026 supported by various factors including policy changes and increased consumer confidence [3] - Management's outlook for 2026 includes organic growth, inorganic expansion, and shareholder returns, with a focus on high-end channels in China and maintaining a strong position in the Korean market [3] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The estimated EPS for the company for 2026-2028 is projected at $0.04, $0.05, and $0.05, respectively, with the valuation multiple for 2026 adjusted from 20x PE to 25x PE, maintaining a target price of HKD 7.9 [1][2]