美伊局势和关税扰动市场，美元升至近一个月高位，大宗商品普遍上扬【春节外盘综述】

Financial Market Overview - The financial markets experienced heightened risks during the Spring Festival, with escalating tensions between the US and Iran, leading to concerns over potential military actions [1] - The US Supreme Court ruled that the government's large-scale tariff collection was illegal, prompting the White House to confirm the termination of certain tariff measures [1] - President Trump increased global tariffs from 10% to the legal maximum of 15% within 24 hours [1] Economic Indicators - The US consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in January, lower than expected, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][14] - The trade deficit widened significantly in December due to a surge in imports, with the goods trade deficit reaching a historical high of $1.24 trillion in 2025 [1][15] - The US GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was significantly below expectations, with consumer spending slowing down [1][16] Stock Market Performance - On the last trading day, all three major US stock indices fell by over 1%, influenced by concerns over the impact of AI and new tariff anxieties [1] Commodity Market Insights - Oil prices reached a six-month high due to fears of conflict between the US and Iran, with significant declines in US crude oil inventories reported [4][5] - CBOT soybean futures rose to a three-month high, driven by strong US soybean crushing and increased demand from China [7] - Gold prices hit a three-week high, influenced by the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions [10] Copper and Other Metals - LME copper prices rose to a one-week high, supported by a rebound in market sentiment following the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, despite pressures from a strong dollar and rising inventories [9] Agricultural Commodities - The USDA reported a significant increase in soybean export sales, with net sales rising by 183% compared to the previous week [7] - Non-commercial traders increased their net long positions in CBOT soybean futures, indicating bullish sentiment in the market [8]