资源大时代2.0：当铜金屡创新高，谁是下一个战略级品种？

Core Viewpoint - The report from Changjiang Securities highlights the emergence of a "second category of scarce resources" in the current macroeconomic environment, driven by de-globalization and dual carbon controls, which limits expansion despite high profits in certain sectors [1]. Group 1: Strategic Industries - Four sectors identified as becoming "second category scarce resources": electrolytic aluminum, chemical and petrochemical, aviation, and oil transportation [1]. - These sectors share common characteristics: strategic importance, global demand, and currently low prices with high profit elasticity [2][4][5]. Group 2: Electrolytic Aluminum - Electrolytic aluminum is labeled as a "reborn resource," with its development fundamentally tied to electricity supply and grid stability [5]. - The report notes that while there are many overseas plans for electrolytic aluminum, actual implementation is challenging due to high electricity consumption ratios in regions like the UAE [8]. - The report suggests that if copper prices stabilize at 88,000 yuan/ton, aluminum prices could reach 25,000 yuan/ton, with aluminum companies becoming dividend machines due to high dividend yields [10]. Group 3: Chemical and Petrochemical - The chemical industry is transitioning from a low-price competition phase to a supply-side positioning strategy, with a focus on high-demand, low-supply products due to environmental regulations [12]. - The report indicates that prices for certain refrigerants have surged significantly, with R32, R134a, and R125 seeing increases of 265%, 107%, and 80% respectively from early 2024 to February 2026 [12]. - The petrochemical sector is expected to see supply constraints due to strict policies, with domestic refining capacity capped at 1 billion tons [17]. Group 4: Aviation - The aviation industry faces a unique supply-demand mismatch, with domestic demand increasing while supply is constrained by foreign manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus [20][21]. - The report predicts a decline in actual supply growth from 2026 to 2028, while demand is expected to surge, leading to a significant profit rebound starting in 2026 [24]. Group 5: Oil Transportation - The oil transportation market is being reshaped by geopolitical events, leading to a split between compliant and non-compliant markets [26]. - The report estimates that if demand from countries like Venezuela and Iran becomes compliant, it could create an additional 33.12 to 53.73 million tons of compliant transport demand, representing a 9.0% to 14.5% increase [26]. - The report also highlights that as leading shipping companies consolidate, their bargaining power may lead to higher freight rates during favorable market conditions [29].