油价扰动叠加电改提速，新型电力系统进入“制度+投资”共振期

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the electric grid ETF (561380) is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic risk premium elevation, the implementation of top-level policy design, and the realization of expected industrial investment intensity, indicating a shift towards a more sustainable and verifiable growth logic in the electric grid industry [1][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - Rising geopolitical risks have led to an increase in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching approximately $71.76 per barrel, reflecting a weekly increase of about 5.92% [2]. - The market is showing signs of tightening supply, as evidenced by the significant decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, which has shifted the focus from previous surplus expectations to concerns over supply disruptions [2][3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Structure - The establishment of a unified national electricity market by 2030 aims to increase the market-based trading volume to about 70% of total electricity consumption, marking a long-term restructuring of the electricity system [4][8]. - The new revenue structure for coal power will transition from being primarily volume-based to a combination of volume, adjustment, and capacity compensation, reflecting its critical role in system stability [5]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Industry Dynamics - The shift in the structure of new energy installations is significant, with projections indicating that by 2025, new wind and solar installations will exceed 430 million kilowatts, surpassing thermal power for the first time [8]. - The electric grid investment is evolving from being cyclical to a long-term trend, driven by the continuous increase in new energy installations and the ongoing marketization of electricity [7][9]. Group 4: Asset Characteristics and Market Perception - The electric grid sector is characterized by long-term orders, engineering delivery models, and high policy certainty, making it attractive during both risk-on and risk-off market conditions [9]. - The recent performance of the electric grid ETF reflects a recognition of its stable cash flows and essential role in the energy transition amidst rising geopolitical uncertainties [10].