Vatee万腾：贸易与降息前景不明 美元指数小幅整理

Group 1 - The USD is facing multiple potential challenges due to increasing uncertainty in global trade policies, which may affect foreign investors' asset allocation preferences, leading to a degree of avoidance of USD assets [3] - The U.S. government is considering implementing new national security tariffs on six specific industries under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, following a recent Supreme Court ruling that canceled several related tariffs from the previous administration [3] - Major trading partners of the U.S. have reacted to these new trade policy developments, with the EU indicating a possible suspension of the trade agreement approval process with the U.S., and India postponing a planned meeting aimed at finalizing a temporary trade agreement due to the U.S. reassessing its broader tariff strategy [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve exhibits a clear wait-and-see attitude regarding future interest rate decisions, with Governor Christopher Waller indicating that support for a rate cut in March will heavily depend on the labor market data released at that time [4] - Current market expectations are cautious, with swap market pricing showing only a 5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March [4] - There is a divergence in policy expectations among major central banks, with the Bank of Japan potentially moving towards further monetary policy normalization and expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, while the European Central Bank is anticipated to maintain its current policy until 2026 [5]