茅台带动春节白酒价格触底止跌，券商看好今年反弹，酒商仍观望

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a downturn in demand, particularly for the 2026 Spring Festival, but high-end liquor prices have stabilized, driven by Moutai's influence [1][6]. Market Overview - Despite concerns about the 2026 Spring Festival being the "coldest" for the white liquor market, several institutions are optimistic about a rebound in the second half of 2026 [1]. - The overall demand for white liquor has declined compared to previous years, with many retailers adopting a wait-and-see approach for the current market [1][7]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer habits have shifted towards more rational spending, with a decrease in the number of tables and guests at banquets, now typically not exceeding eight people [2]. - E-commerce has diverted some traditional offline demand, allowing consumers to purchase liquor quickly even during the Spring Festival [1]. Price Trends - High-end liquor prices, particularly for Moutai, have stabilized, with the wholesale price of Moutai remaining around 1,700 RMB per bottle, up approximately 150 RMB from the end of 2025 [6]. - Other premium brands like Wuliangye and Fenjiu have also shown price stabilization, indicating a potential recovery in the high-end market [6]. Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a "two extremes hot, middle cold" situation, where products priced between 100-200 RMB and above 800 RMB are performing well, while mid-range products face pressure [7]. - The core products of leading liquor companies are selling well, but the profit margins for these products are limited, indicating a complex market situation [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the high-end liquor market's stabilization is a sign of industry recovery, although the market is still in a fragile state [7][8]. - The recovery of business banquets and the overall economic environment will be crucial for supporting high-end consumption in the future [8].